By: Jose Caceres
As of mid-2016 the fossil fuel era is facing a critical phase. Although fossil fuels prevail in a dominant position in the energy supply of the modern world, its gigantic grip seems to be losing strength. That strength once extremely vigorous might not ever fully recover. In other words, and particularly in regards oil, the current downturn most likely will not give way to any robust growth in the future.
For those, like myself -a petroleum geologist-, that were directly affected by the recent industry downturn, when it comes to employment, the above situation can be either seen as disastrous or contrary to that, as a pivotal time for rediscovering new options. Oblivious to the downturn, a significant segment of the population has for a long time (and continue to do so) demonized the oil industry. Graciously, the lifestyle and high standards of living of many of those who most avidly opposes oil, is largely owed to the benefits that oil has provided since its massive consumption and use was ingrained in modern civilization. So, before moving on discussing the core issue of this article I believe it is prudent to acknowledge that not only that oil and fossil fuels in general deserve respect, but moreover gratitude, we still use their products intensively and not only that, but we cannot go in our everyday lives without them.
Now, unless we ignore the fact that everything evolves, we have to accept that a dramatic shift in the energy supply matrix is starting to take place. This shift is due to multiple reasons, including addressing the increasing concerns by the global community about the climate change implications should we continue in a ‘business as usual’ posture when it comes to the consumption of fossil fuels. A clear example of this is the replacement of coal with renewable energy options; a process that is currently underway in different parts of the world.
However, and having said the above, a very important point to highlight is that the current and unprecedented downturn in the oil industry which has costed the loss of hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect jobs worldwide, has nothing (or very little) to do with climate action initiatives. This downturn is mainly owed to the significant oil-price drop as a result of a global surge in supply (market glut) as well as geopolitical intricacies and a seemingly low growth in demand. The supply surge indeed is consequence of technological advances which have allowed shale oil production development at a massive scale.
Climate action certainly doesn’t favour the growth of the oil industry either. Instead, with mitigation of global warming and climate change in mind, there is greater emphasis on reducing the reliance of the use of oil as a mean of fuel for transportation, which represent a critical move in the climate action agenda. Parallel to this, the advent of the next generation of electric vehicles will certainly represent yet another hard blow to the oil industry.
Contrary to conventional thought only a decade ago, most likely the oil era will not vanish because we will reach a peak on demand that is unable to be met, but because technological improvements will continue to reduce its preponderance as a source of fuel and this eventually will erode its demand. The phrase coined by the Sheik Zaki Yamani back in the year 2000 is indeed quite fitting: “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil”.
Because this is a time of change, the complexities of adaption and uncertainties abound. We all want (at least ideally) a prosperous future for ourselves and the generations to come. Accepting the scientific evidence of the connection between burning fossil fuels to greenhouse gas emissions and ultimately to global warming, is a first step and a fundamental one for proactively moving along with Climate action.
One frame to address two problems
The most critical problem may ultimately be climate change, but perhaps the most immediate one is the unemployment derived from the oil industry downturn. The backdrop to all this is that climate action doesn’t necessarily “like” the oil industry. From the perspective of a potential employer from a green energy enterprise, a former oil-worker often carries the stigma accompanied with the terms ‘oil’ or ‘petroleum’. This stigma compromises and impedes countless engineers, geologists, industry leaders and a plethora of workers in a wide spectrum of trades that made a career in the once indisputable powerful oil industry.
Undoubtedly the above situation will bring afloat the entrepreneurial skills of many and the success cases will be in order. However, and given the large scope and magnitude of the issue, in light of the impediments to otherwise employed – tax paying people, it is important to promote a collaborative dialogue regarding the creation of a framework of cooperation and leadership at the government level. This framework should encompass plans that align not only stimulus for greening the economy but also articulating concrete measures to enable the unemployed oil industry workforce to adapt and get back to work. The good news is that the mitigation efforts on climate action, which embraces the substantial use of renewable energy and the scaling-up efforts to create sustainable and energy efficient cities and communities brings with it significant opportunities.
In this context, the talent of many former oil workers will definitely be noted in some cases, however, the lack of success in securing opportunities can far outweigh the successful cases, specially if there is a lack of concrete measures to tackle the re-employment problem.
Informing about the importance of addressing climate change is certainly necessary, but identifying and enabling opportunities for re-training and building strategic capacities and expertise that could allow the transfer of skills is essential. It is important to note that the energy industry unemployment in discussion is not a localized problem but one that currently affects several oil-rich nations worldwide. It is worth to note though, that the potential options and opportunities are going to be different for different parts of the world in light of the differences in governance and government as well as access to natural resources, etc. In this sense, what may work to address the re-employment issue in a country like Canada for example, would not apply to other countries that lack a stable socio-political structure.
Let’s not forget that achieving sustainable development cannot be complete when the environment is favoured over people’s requirement for employment (and to provide for their families). Both are equally important.
Perhaps this article won’t generate much empathy from the most radical green advocates, but believe me, you wouldn’t be reading this now shouldn’t the oil industry had made feasible to produce the materials that craft our lives. Surely, the resilience of the oil industry will keep it going for decades to come; but most likely, its former vigour and the catalyst provided by new technological advances and the need to address climate change will impede it to grow back to its former stature. All said, I applaud the golden era of oil for what it provided to humanity while at the same time, welcome in standing ovation the new phase of change towards a greener and more sustainable world.
